Uganda to shore up South Sudan while IGAD seeks a political solution
Paul Joseph Nzeribe and Walter Sebastian
Modern Tokyo Times
President Salva Kiir of South Sudan is still seeking a political solution to the current crisis in this new nation state. Despite this, talks appear to be stalling in Ethiopia despite the goodwill of several regional nations. Not surprisingly, Uganda is alarmed by the current situation therefore this nation will send more military support to the government of South Sudan.
Uganda distrusts the motives of rebel forces under Riek Machar based on past history. This applies to suspicions in Uganda that Machar was involved in many intrigues with Joseph Kony. In Uganda the warlord Kony is notorious for many massacres being committed by his followers. On top of this, it is clear that Kony was involved in many brutal deeds based on the wishes of the Khartoum government in Sudan aimed at the people of South Sudan. Therefore, it is easy to envisage a link between Machar and the destabilization policies of Sudan against the newly formed state of South Sudan.
The Guardian reports “Yoweri Museveni, the president of Uganda, is a strong ally of Kiir. The neighbouring countries have built a bond that goes back to South Sudan’s armed struggle for independence from Sudan and the Khartoum government. Museveni recently warned Machar that East African countries would unite to defeat him militarily if he does not agree to attend peace talks.”
“Some analysts say Museveni distrusts Machar and that stems, in part, from the latter’s alleged links to the Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony, who once operated in jungles that now fall in South Sudan’s territory and with the alleged support of Sudan’s government.”
Museveni is clearly watching events in South Sudan and currently approximately 1,200 soldiers from the armed forces of Uganda are based in this nation. These troops have been sent to protect important installations in Juba. However, if Machar, or other outside forces, threaten the integrity of South Sudan; then Uganda will increase its military power in this nation. Indeed, when Sudan threatened South Sudan last year based on boundary and energy issues; then Uganda made it clear that they would not tolerate any threats from Khartoum.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is a regional bloc in East Africa and currently peace talks are being held based on the collective involvement of major players in IGAD. This notably applies to Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda who all favor a political settlement.
Ethiopia is also worried about regional instability and the intrigues of Eritrea and Sudan. At the same time, Ethiopia is trying to support the containment of militant Islamist forces in Somalia. Therefore, Ethiopia is trying to garner support alongside Kenya and Uganda in order to stabilize the situation in South Sudan. This can visibly be seen by ongoing peace talks in Ethiopia in relation to the current crisis in South Sudan.
IGAD is making it known that a major stumbling block between Kiir and Machar involves prisoners being held in South Sudan after Kiir alleged that they were planning a coup. Machar denies this therefore he is demanding that all eleven detainees are released prior to holding genuine talks. However, according to Kiir the decision about releasing these high level prisoners belongs to the judiciary of South Sudan.
It is promising that an envoy from IGAD has gone to Juba in order to speak openly about these political detainees with Kiir. Irrespective of the final outcome about this issue, it would appear that Kiir is open to holding sincere talks.
According to some reports more defections to the Machar camp are now happening in Central Equatorial, Jonglei and the region of the Upper Nile. If this is true, then it is incumbent on regional nations like Uganda to up the ante against forces that seek to destabilize South Sudan. Irrespective of the rights or wrongs of Kiir and Machar, they must surely know that ethnic tensions could fill the vacuum and spiral out of control. Therefore, it is essential that regional powers in IGAD put pressure on all players in order to resolve the issue.
If Machar continues to ignore regional powers then clearly it would appear that he is being backed by Sudan. After all, the only regional power to gain from the destabilization of South Sudan applies to Sudan.
Lee Jay Walker at Modern Tokyo Times says: “It is also essential that internal political reforms become introduced into the power mechanisms of the ruling political party in South Sudan. This notably applies to checks and balances in order to prevent power concentration. After all, it seems that Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, Rebecca Nyandeng Garang and Pagan Amum Okiech are all concerned about this area in relation to the chairpersonship of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.”
Overall, it is abundantly clear that IGAD faces a stern challenge ahead in trying to mediate between all interested parties. At the same time, if bloodletting increases then Uganda and other regional powers must step into the breach in order to stabilize South Sudan before it is too late.
Lee Jay Walker gave guidance to both main writers
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